Hey everyone!
Today was unlike any other day at Math and the Mouse. This morning we got to gamble! But, not actually. We were taught the game of Liar’s Dice. The game is played by giving each player a cup and five six-sided dice. Every round players roll and conceal their dice. One player starts and makes a bid reflecting the quantity of a value shown by each die. For example, if there are 6 people playing and the player has values 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, the bidder might bid there are at least 6 fives at the table. The next player has three choices. Challenge, raise the bid, or call “spot on”.
When challenged, if the bid is correct, the challenger loses a die; if the bid is wrong, the bidder loses a die instead. When raising the bid, the player must choose either a higher quantity or higher value, such as bidding either at least 6 sixes or at least 7 fives. If “spot on” is called, the caller loses a die if there is not exactly what they called; otherwise, the bidder loses a die and the caller receives that die. This process repeats until there is one player left standing.
Much like our TTP activity, Liar’s Dice sparked some fierce (and loving!) competition among our classmates. As you can see in the pictures below, there was a lot of excitement and dramatic moments. Whether we lost or won, everyone enjoyed bonding and making jokes. Liar’s Dice made for an exceptionally fun morning!
We played Liar’s Dice a number of times until we crowned our winner, or should I say liar?, Will Hutson. Then we were lectured about the relation of the game to binomial distributions. For instance, there are a fixed number of trials (the number of dice), there is a fixed probability of success (⅙ for each value), there are two mutually exclusive outcomes (a chosen value or not), and that the trials are independent. With this information, we can find the probability of a certain bid and determine if we believe the player is lying or not.
After the lecture and some time to finish up our workforce scheduling projects, we had a meeting about our third and final project! We voted on our favorite topics and were divided into groups. There are four projects each which include different rides and types of data. Over the course of the next eight days we will be collecting data on these rides to help us answer the questions posed below.
Next, our second project wants to determine whether larger groups prefer six-seater rides, such as Test Track, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, and Smugglers Run. One theory is that these rides are more popular among families, so the group sizes should be larger for six-seaters than for similar rides.
For the third project, we are curious whether the posted wait times for continuous loading rides is more accurate than other rides. Continuous loading rides never stop, and people step directly on or off the ride as it is moving. Does this constant movement make the wait times more accurate? How do actual wait times compare to Len Testa’s predicted wait times? We shall see.
Finally, our last project is all about the Tower of Terror. The only thing worse than being trapped in a falling elevator is waiting in long lines for a falling elevator, so limiting the number of empty seats on the ride is important. Early estimates suggest half of all elevators have empty seats, which adds up over the course of the day. This group aims to fix that with better strategies for placing people on the ride.
So, we headed into Hollywood Studios for our first round of project three data collections. By splitting up into groups we could focus on data for Toy Story Mania, Smugglers Run, and Tower of Terror, which relate to the first, second, and fourth projects listed above.
Hey everyone! It’s Hannah again. I thoroughly enjoyed today because I got to do two of my favorite activities, play games and ride rollercoasters! The Liar’s Dice game was so much fun for me because it is a lot like my favorite game, Texas Holdem. I like these games because they involve both probability and skill. Now, back to the rollercoasters! When we went to Hollywood Studios, I was involved in gathering data from the Tower of Terror which included going to the photo section after the ride and counting the number of empty seats in each cart. I was also able to go on the ride twice! After my data collection at the Tower of Terror, our group headed over to Toy Story Mania to collect even more data for a different group’s project. Learning all the Easter eggs on this ride, as well as riding with both Dr. Hutson and Dr. Bouzarth, allowed me to get my all time high score of 204,600!
Jack here! Today was another early morning which included a great game of Liar’s dice. Turns out I am not a very good liar, but maybe that’s a good thing? Regardless, it was a ton of fun and directly led us into our class lecture about probability. Later, we picked out some delicious lunch for tomorrow from a local pita restaurant, which I am definitely looking forward to. Then, once our final project groups were revealed, we had some time to wrap up the workforce scheduling project and begin making progress towards our presentations with Team Disney. My day concluded with some data collection at the Tower of Terror and Toy Story Mania. At the Tower of Terror, it was a lot of fun to hear from the Disney employees what tricks they use to ensure there are no wasted seats. We will certainly be using their insights to craft our own strategies and rules. As for Toy Story Mania, targeting the Easter eggs boosted my score from ~120,000 to over 170,000. I still need practice, but I am consistently improving my score and accuracy.
It’s been fun, but we need to get some sleep soon. We are very excited for tomorrow and looking forward to our presentations to Team Disney on Tuesday. There, two groups will present on our previous projects: Mickey Bar Carts and the Traveling Tourist Problem. These teams have been hard at work refining their presentations, and we can’t wait to see the final products!
Until next time,
Jack and Hannah
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