After yesterday’s activities, the group got to sleep in a little and begin class at 9am. Today’s class started with a fun and interactive activity before we moved into the main lecture material. We were introduced to the game Liar’s Dice, a game centered around probability, estimation, and strategic thinking. Each player had five dice, and during every turn, a player would make a bet about how many dice showing a certain number existed across the entire table. The next player then had three choices: challenge the bet by claiming it was incorrect, claim that the bet was exactly right, or increase the bet by making a higher estimate. Since nobody could see the other players’ dice, the game forced us to make decisions based on incomplete information rather than certainty.
The class was divided into five different tables, and we competed against one another until each table had a winner. The winners then advanced to a final round. The Anh almost won the entire game, but in the end Aidan came out on top, so congratulations to him for the victory!
What made the activity especially interesting was how naturally it connected to the topic of binomial processes and probability distributions. While we were playing, we were unknowingly applying the same kind of probabilistic reasoning used in statistics and data science. For example, if I had several dice showing the number three in my own hand, I could estimate the likelihood that other players also had threes. Instead of making completely random guesses, we were mentally calculating what outcomes were more or less likely based on the information available to us.
The game demonstrated how probability can be used to predict outcomes when dealing with repeated independent events, such as rolling dice. Even without writing equations, we were constantly analyzing risk, estimating chances, and adjusting our decisions based on previous information. The activity made these mathematical ideas feel much more intuitive and practical.
The discussion then expanded beyond the game itself and connected these ideas to real-world applications, especially within Disney operations. Probability models and binomial processes can be used to estimate ride wait times, predict the likelihood of ride failures, and analyze guest flow throughout the parks. For example, engineers and analysts can study how often a ride may temporarily stop operating over a certain period of time or estimate how efficiently guests can be loaded into attractions. These same concepts can also help create algorithms that optimize ride seating, reduce unused capacity, and improve overall operational efficiency.
After a short break for lunch, everybody reconvened to work on our projects. Today was all about putting everything together and preparing for our presentations on Tuesday. Since most of the calculations and analysis are complete, the groups focused on polishing their PowerPoints and figuring out the best way to present their data.
Once we all found a good stopping point, the group left for a few hours of fun at Animal Kingdom! Upon arrival, we divided up into a few groups and enjoyed a little free time. Some chose to explore more of the park, while others focused more on a specific attraction (translation: rode Everest six times in a row). Despite it being free time, the professors encouraged us to practice a little data collection to prepare for our next projects. One example of this was on Everest, which divides its queue into even and odd parties. Even though one group of six started ahead of a group of seven, both groups ended up on the same train because of this process.
The group met up for dinner at the Yak and Yeti restaurant before venturing off for a final hour of park time. We all experienced a little (or maybe not so little) splash at the Kali River Rapids, but fortunately it was hot enough to dry most people off.
The same Everest group tried to ride it one more time, but sadly it was already closed for the night due to technical errors. They still commemorated their record number of consecutive rides with celebratory Yeti plushies. Dr. Hutson and Dr. Bouzarth managed one more ride of Everest before getting stuck at the top! Fortunately, they were rescued by friendly cast members and returned to the group safely. To cap off the day, a few group members stopped for some Mickey Bars on the way out of Animal Kingdom (you might remember those from our first project). Tired and still a bit wet, we all returned to the hotel for a quiet night of project work and sleep.
Today’s blog was written by The Anh Nguyen and Isabella Sanchez!
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